The year 2020 is likely to be a year of significant risk for civil aviation, and by extension global commerce, according to a forecast by a risk management consultancy. Geopolitical tensions and high potential for armed conflict threaten to disrupt the busiest air corridors in the world in 2020. The strategic routes linking Europe and Asia are particularly vulnerable, says The Risk Advisory Group.
Henry Wilkinson, Head of Intelligence & Analysis, Director, at Risk Advisory, says: “The Strategic Outlook 2020 aims to help Risk Advisory’s clients better understand transformation and change in the global risk environment, anticipate and plan for crises, and foresee improvements to gain an early commercial advantage. Forecasting is not an exact science but it is an essential process that starts conversations and the process of building resilience. Our assessments show that the need for global businesses to take board-level ownership of geopolitical risks, and invest in intelligence that one can trust amid a growing tide of disinformation, has never been more urgent or important.”
“Strategic Outlook is intended to encourage our clients to consider, discuss and plan for future risk scenarios, and to reduce the risk of surprise by stimulating forethought. For us, it informs our intelligence collection and plans and resourcing for the coming year.”
The firm forecasts that 2020 will be the year when climate-change related terrorism starts to become a new normal. As the impacts of climate change become more acute, and the sense of existential emergency more widely felt, climate activism will probably become more radical and violent, it suggests. Activists on the left and right are already using climate change to rally people. Business and governments have traditionally been targets for climate activism, but right-wing extremists are likely to use climate change to justify violence their perceived adversaries, according to the firm.
The document, the London-based firm’s sixth annual global forecast, ranges over the world’s regions, covering geopolitical and security risks such as those around the US presidential election. It includes ‘outliers’ – scenarios outside of regular expectations and what we think could prove surprises or failures of intelligence or imagination. A digital version, and a hard copy edition with ‘Security & Safety Risk Map’ wall chart are available.
Visit www.riskadvisory.com.
