During the next two decades, the intensity of competition for global influence is likely to reach its highest level since the Cold War, says the United States’ National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the seventh edition of its report, titled Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World. The NIC has delivered such a trends report to each incoming or returning US presidential administration since 1997 as an unclassified assessment of the strategic environment. The aim; to help policymakers and citizens anticipate and prepare for a range of possible futures.
According to the report, the next 20 years will be more volatile with a heightened risk of conflict, at least until states establish new rules, norms, and boundaries for the more disruptive areas of competition. It says: “States will face a combination of highly destructive and precise conventional and strategic weapons, cyber activity targeting civilian and military infrastructure, and a confusing disinformation environment. Regional actors, including spoilers such as Iran and North Korea, will jockey to advance their goals and interests, bringing more volatility and uncertainty to the system.”
As for ‘other major powers’ besides the USA and China, the report says that Russia is ‘likely to remain a disruptive power’; while the UK is ‘likely to continue to punch above its weight internationally given its strong military and financial sector and its global focus. The United Kingdom’s nuclear capabilities and permanent UN Security Council membership add to its global influence. Managing the economic and political challenges posed by its departure from the EU will be the country’s key challenge; failure could lead to a splintering of the United Kingdom and leave it struggling to maintain its global power.’
On terrorism the report sees global jihadist groups as likely to be the largest, most persistent transnational threat. The report says terrorist groups ‘will continue to exploit societal fragmentation and weak governance to push their ideologies and gain power through violence. During the next 20 years, regional and intrastate conflicts, demographic pressures, environmental degradation, and democratic retrenchment are likely to exacerbate the political, economic, and social grievances terrorists have long exploited to gain supporters as well as safe havens to organise, train, and plot’. As a sign of how terrorism may take advantage of geopolitical volatility, the report suggests it may become ever harder to forge bilateral partnerships or multilateral cooperation on traveler data collection and information-sharing efforts ‘that are key to preventing terrorists from crossing borders and entering new conflict zones’. Poor countries probably will struggle with home-grown threats. Some countries may opt for ‘non-aggression pacts that leave terrorists’ free within their borders or ‘submit to terrorist rule over significant parts of their territory’.
As for what the world may look like, the report offers various scenarios. At worst, we face ‘global catastrophe’ as bad as bread shortages in western cities; and a ‘wave of unrest’ as protest against governments’ inability to meet basic human needs and bringing down leaders and regimes. At best, the US and other democracies prove adaptable and resilient, and the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia become ‘the established global leaders in several technologies, including AI, robotics, the Internet of Things, biotech, energy storage, and additive manufacturing’.
To read the 156 page report, visit https://www.odni.gov/. For another, brief, read, the ODNI and the US federal Department of Justice (DOJ), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released an unclassified summary of a joint comprehensive threat assessment on US domestic violent extremism.
