A more multi-polar, competitive and adversarial world is taking shape. The potential for interstate conflict and crises that impact entire regions is rising to levels not seen in decades. Yet the capacity for leading states to cooperate and prevent crises is diminishing, as they themselves become more internally divided over how to tackle the economic, social and political challenges. So says the Risk Advisory Group Ltd in its Strategic Outlook 2018, its fourth annual global security forecast, and the first released to a wider audience than clients.
The Outlook was produced by the analysts of the risk consultancy’s Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS), which provides direct intelligence support to a corporate security and crisis management teams in businesses across an array of sectors, the firm says.
Henry Wilkinson, Head of Intelligence & Analysis, Director, said: “The Strategic Outlook 2018 aims to help Risk Advisory’s clients better understand transformation and change in the global risk environment, anticipate and plan for crises, and foresee improvements to gain an early commercial advantage. Forecasting is not an exact science but it is an essential process that starts conversations and the process of building resilience. Our assessments show that the need for global businesses to take board-level ownership of geopolitical risks and invest in intelligence that one can trust amid a growing tide of disinformation has never been more urgent or important.”
The document sees intensified strategic competition in the Middle East as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, and Russia all vie for greater influence. Political and economic stability will improve in much of Europe as the divisive and disruptive influence of reactionary populism recedes. The UK and Italy will probably be exceptions.
It offers security and crisis-related forecasts by region; early warning indicators and ‘trigger points’ for crisis plans; and some possible outcomes in the coming year that the firm thinks could prove surprising, namely risks that sit on the outer edges of probability, but are plausible and consequential enough to merit further thought.
About The Risk Advisory Group
Founded in 1997, it employs over 200 people and has offices in Washington DC, London, Moscow, Dubai, Beirut and Hong Kong; visit www.riskadvisory.com.
