Strategic Outlook 2019 is the fifth annual global security and geopolitical forecast from the consultancy Risk Advisory. It’s titled ‘Towards a Zero-Sum World’.
The London-based firm (pictured) says that across nearly every region, we forecast that authoritarian, right-wing and nationalist governments and movements will grow in strength and influence. The global balance of ideas and power is changing. And with it, the longer-term prospects for states to jointly tackle challenges like climate change, environmental degradation and water scarcity are thinning when they most need attention. All perpetuate insecurity and instability, limit development and drive migration. This feeds a cycle of complex risks that will become even harder to resolve. The need for global leadership on such issues is as obvious as it is presently lacking, the firm adds.
As for Europe, the firm forecasts extreme right-wing groups are likely to grow in strength and influence during 2019; and that this will negatively affect security, particularly hate crime. There are also longer-term political stability implications for the region, as European Union member states struggle to coordinate responses to illiberal governments inside the bloc.
Risk Advisory Head of Intelligence and Analysis director Henry Wilkinson says: “The Strategic Outlook 2019 aims to help Risk Advisory’s clients better understand transformation and change in the global risk environment, anticipate and plan for crises, and foresee improvements to gain an early commercial advantage. Forecasting is not an exact science but it is an essential process that starts conversations and the process of building resilience. Our assessments show that the need for global businesses to take board-level ownership of geopolitical risks, and invest in intelligence that one can trust amid a growing tide of disinformation, has never been more urgent or important.
“Strategic Outlook is intended to encourage our clients to consider, discuss and plan for future risk scenarios, and to reduce the risk of surprise by stimulating forethought. For us, it informs our intelligence collection and plans and resourcing for the coming year.”
