The Wrong Climate is the title of the risk consultancy Dragonfly’s eighth annual forecast for security and intelligence leaders, Strategic Outlook, covering on geopolitical, security and crisis risks. Among those risks for 2022 that the firm points to are: instability sustaining global supply chain disruption and driving inflation; prospects of inter-state conflict risks over Taiwan and Ukraine; and widening inequalities caused by pandemic fuelling unrest and terrorism.
Broken down thematically and geographically, Strategic Outlook 2022 details the political stability and security landscape for the next 12 months. It provides intelligence-based insights and early warning for the consultancy’s clients to anticipate threats, plan their operations, and stay ahead (and in business) generally.
This year’s forecast includes assessments on the stability prospects for all major regions – North America, the Middle-East, Asia, Africa and Europe – and covers covid-19 disruptions and forecasts for when countries will return to ‘normality’, climate change, and continuing disruption to global supply chains.
Henry Wilkinson, Chief Intelligence Officer at Dragonfly (the former Intelligence & Analysis practice of The Risk Advisory Group), says: “What we forecast in 2022 are the implications of deepening systemic shifts in the international system. The rules-based international order continues to weaken in the face of waning US commitment to uphold it, disunity between democracies, and an intensifying spread of authoritarianism. The landscape remains extremely challenging for global businesses, and the state of world politics is highly unfavourable to meet wide-ranging threats and global risks. These include the impacts of the Covid-19 Omicron variant, strategic competition between the US and China, rising tensions over Ukraine and Taiwan, entrenching conflicts in Africa, widening inequalities globally, and acute and chronic environmental crises.
“Although the geostrategic outlook is generally pessimistic for 2022, chinks of positivity can be found. We anticipate improvements in the Middle East, after years of worsening instability and insecurity, including a probable US-led deal with Iran on its nuclear programme. The strength of the global economic rebound also suggests many countries and regions will emerge in bruised but reasonable shape in 2022, albeit vulnerable to wider instability and new coronavirus variants that may emerge. This is a positive change from last year, but it is still not a climate where a sense of normalcy is likely to prevail.”
More in the February 2022 print edition of Professional Security magazine.
For a copy of the report visit https://www.dragonflyintelligence.com/publications/strategic-outlook-2022.
About the firm
Dragonfly offers all-source security intelligence, assessment, risk modelling and analytics, launched in summer 2021 as a stand-alone company by The Risk Advisory Group. It has offices in London, New York, Washington DC and Singapore. Visit www.dragonflyintelligence.com.
