Case Studies

Terror trends

by Mark Rowe

Some 119 foiled, failed and completed terrorist attacks were reported by a total of 13 EU states in 2019, according to Europol’s latest EU Terrorism Situation and Trend report (TE-SAT). Some 1004 were arrested on suspicion of terrorism-related offences across 19 EU states. Belgium, France (224), Italy, Spain and most of all the UK (281) reported the highest numbers. Ten people died in terrorist attacks in the EU and 27 were injured.

As for right-wing terrorism, after a decline in reported attacks in 2018, in 2019 three EU states reported a total of six right-wing terrorist attacks (one completed, one failed, four foiled), compared to only one in 2018. Several attacks not classified as terrorism under national law by right-wing extremists were reported by Germany and claimed the lives of three people.

As for jihadist terrorism, hundreds of European citizens with links to IS remained in Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaeda again displayed its intent and ambition to strike Western targets, while its regional affiliates aim to integrate and coordinate populations and armed factions in conflict areas. Last year, eight EU states were hit by jihadist terrorist attacks. Several cases of funding the return of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) were observed in 2019.

Last year right-wing attacks in Christchurch (New Zealand), Poway (USA), El Paso (USA), Bærum (Norway) and Halle (Germany) were part of violent incidents worldwide, the perpetrators of which were part of similar transnational online communities and took inspiration from one another. Violent right-wing extremists maintain international links, for example through participation in concerts and rallies marking historical events, according to the report.

Among themes common across the EU are concerns that those imprisoned for non-terrorist offences may be radicalised by jihadist ideology; and that individuals may self-radicalise, principally on the internet, without being part of any network. While the TE-SAT found little sign of a ‘systematic nexus’ between general crime and terrorism, it noted that many foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) have prior criminal records.

As for weapons, talk continued to appear on terrorist online forums and social media about using CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological-nuclear) materials; terrorists mostly aimed to target civilians and places of mass gatherings; and if using explosives, terrorists may aim to conceal and remotely-control devices, such as time-delayed IEDs and person-borne IEDs in suicide vests or bags, as in a plot disrupted in November with the arrest of two men in the Netherlands. In Northern Ireland, many attacks involved firearms, small IIDs or IEDs, such as Molotov cocktails and pipe bombs.

Comment

Catherine De Bolle, Executive Director of Europol, said: “While many right-wing extremist groups across the EU have not resorted to violence, they contribute to a climate of fear and animosity against minority groups in our EU cities. Such a climate, built on xenophobia, hatred for Jews and Muslims, anti-feminism and anti-immigration sentiments, may lower the threshold for some radicalised individuals to use violence against people and property of minority groups as we have witnessed this all too often in recent months.

“My thoughts are with those people and their families who in 2019 suffered the consequences of terrorist and extremist violence. The ultimate goal of law enforcement officers is to save lives and minimise the number of victims of intolerance and political violence.”

For the 98-page report visit the Europol website.

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