The London-based terrorism reinsurer Pool Re has published its fifth, latest Terrorism Frequency Report, a quarterly view of the terror threat. The document on the Pool Re website is by its in-house Terrorism Risk and Analysis Centre (TRAC).
Introducing the report, Ed Butler, chief resilience officer at Pool Re, makes the point that on the surface, ‘many might consider that the threat from terrorism in the UK has abated from its peak in 2017. This would be a false premise as the threat from terrorism remains at an unprecedented level’, that is, severe. Insurers and businesses in general should not be distracted by trying to identify the exact denomination of terrorist groups but rather they should remain ‘threat-agnostic’, he suggests.
He says: “The threat posed by returning fighters [from Syria] is considered to be particularly high. Unpredictability of who, when and where, especially over the long term, means that we need to be at our maximum readiness to be surprised. It remains critically important for all businesses, be they small enterprises or large corporates, to increase their resilience to terrorism of all kinds by proactively managing and mitigating risk. Terrorism insurance is just one element of a successful risk management strategy, but it is fundamental in helping businesses transfer terrorism risks and recover from terrorism events.”
The report includes an assessment of ideological trends and processes in terrorist radicalisation written by the Director of International Security Studies at the defence think-tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Dr Raffaello Pantucci. He covers emerging trends in terrorism prevention:
The increased role and visibility of women among Islamist terror organisations, serving as leading propagandists and even in frontline attack cells.
The changing demographic profile of extreme right-wing groups (“XRW”). The rise of groups such as National Action, with many young male and female members, means the stereotype of the elderly white men is outdated and XRW groups now resemble Islamist groups in composition.
XRW cells have also adopted Islamist language, with rallying cries of “white jihad” and calls for stabbing attacks proliferating.
Growth of online social communities, providing an environment where fringe micro-ideologies can come to dominate.
The Pool Re analysis and research team examines:
The phenomenon of extreme left-wing (“XLW”) terrorism which is not considered to present a significant terror threat to the UK, but may experience a resurgence due to the rising prominence of ecological and inequality questions in public discourse; and right-wing terrorists, who account for a small proportion of attacks globally but have been on the rise in recent years.
The next report is due in November.
