Stats concerns

by Mark Rowe

The latest, 2017 Crime Statistics in England and Wales continue to cause concern, and the figures do the talking, writes Jim Gannon.

The crime figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on January 25 for the 12 months to September 2017 continue to present a bleak picture for those involved in the detection and prevention of crime and of course those also who live and work in England and Wales. One of the first things that came to the forefront in my mind when viewing the latest statistics was in fact the apparent growth in organised crime or can it now be referred to as the McMafia effect. Those of you who have been watching the drama McMafia on BBC television must have recognised storylines which prompted food for thought regarding how major global organised crime is financed and facilitated along with the aid of bribery and corruption at a number of different levels.

Although in some quarters there is likely to be a dispute over the accuracy of the police recorded crime figures and how this may vary in different force areas and in fact even within the forces themselves. The willingness of victims to come forward to report crime is in a number of areas affected by the relationship between the police and the actual individual community it serves. According to the latest information police officer numbers to the 12 months to September 2017 are down yet again by 930 officers to 121,929. Add to this the impact of police station closures, low police morale, rising crime figures and a fall in crime detection rates, topped with economic uncertainty and the fear of widespread job losses during the Brexit transition, all this still does not present the complete picture.

The combined figures from the 44 forces in England and Wales according to ONS reveal the following;

Robbery 68,968 offences up 29pc, knife crimes 37,443 offences up 21pc, sex offences 138,045 up 23pc, violent crimes 129,140 offences up 20pc, vehicle related thefts up 18pc and burglary 433,110 offences up 8pc. There were 6694 gun crimes reported. Excluding the Hillsborough stadium deaths and the terrorist attack victims the data produced indicated that 57 more people were murdered than in the previous 12 months. These figures indicate the highest crime levels recorded since the figures produced for 2008-9. Recorded crime figures up to 2011 had been reducing but since then there has been a steady rise. If you were able to estimate the amount of totally unrecorded crime and add it to these figures I am afraid you could only reach one conclusion about the real situation.

Crime survey

The Crime Survey however for England and Wales however puts across another viewpoint presenting somewhat of a feel good factor and a bit of a different approach as follows:

‘Our assessment of the main data sources is that levels of crime have continued to fall consistent with the general trend since the mid-1990s.’ However, these figures cover a broad range of offence types and not all offence types showed falls. The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) shows that many of the high-volume crimes, such as lower harm violent crime, criminal damage and most types of theft, were either estimated to be at levels similar to the previous year or to have fallen. It also shows that crime is not a common experience for most people, with eight in ten adults surveyed by the CSEW not being a victim of any of the crimes asked about in the survey. Other data sources including police data on the number of crimes recorded, show evidence of increases in some of the less frequently occurring, but higher-harm offences. These rises were relatively low in volume and were more than offset by falls seen across other higher-volume offence types shown by the CSEW.

Police recorded crime statistics must be interpreted with caution. The police can only record crimes that are brought to their attention and for many types of offence these data cannot provide a reliable measure of levels or trends. However, for some offences, police figures can be useful in informing our understanding of the general picture of crime. This is especially the case for those crimes that generally have high levels of reporting to the police and where audits of recording practices have not highlighted significant concerns about the reliability of the data. Police recorded crime showed continuing rises in a number of higher-harm violent offences that are not well-measured by the CSEW as they occur in relatively low volumes. This was most evident in offences of knife crime and gun crime; categories that are thought to be relatively well-recorded by the police. The occurrence of these offences tends to be disproportionately concentrated in London and other metropolitan areas.

Police figures also suggest rises in vehicle-related theft and burglary. These are offence types that are less likely to be affected by changes in policing activity and recording practice and are therefore likely to reflect some genuine increases. While these rises have not previously been reflected in the CSEW there are some signs that these increases in vehicle-related thefts may be beginning to appear in the latest estimates. This is purely an extract of a very comprehensive report and survey but it demonstrates how statistics and facts can be interpreted in different ways.

Misha Glenny

Whether you choose to ignore it or not the non fictional book McMafia written by Glenny on which the drama series is based, demonstrates how efficiently organised crime easily overcame any challenges posed by creed, colour or national identity following the collapse of communism and the massive globalisation of the money markets during the 1990s. Mobsters soon recognised that the EUs open door policy was an easy route to Europe’s wealthy consumer market, fuelled by limitless credit facilities and the urge for material retail satisfaction. According to some recent media reports it has been said that organised crime has sunk its teeth into the most sophisticated society. Why start at the bottom of the ladder when you have the ability to go straight to the top.

There is however a glimmer of hope on the horizon and the publication of the Panama and the Paradise papers in 2016-7 are an indication of this. Investigative journalists encouraged by powerful NGOs and law enforcement organisations, tax lawyers and those groups driven by the will to expose corruption and malpractice are exerting pressure on governments to turn the tide on organised crime which is allowing our social system to be eaten like a cancer from the inside.

Picture by Mark Rowe, Edmonton police station, north London.

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