Dr Tim Brain, recently retired chief constable of Gloucestershire and Association of Chief Police Officers lead on Finance, now Honorary Senior Research Fellow at Cardiff, has explained in an article for Jane’s Police Review what the scale of the cuts facing the service might actually be.

Dr Brain, who is working with Cardiff’s Universities’ Police Science Institute, explained the cuts are predicted to fall at around 25 per cent but could be as high as 40 per cent. He said: “Obviously, we don’t yet know, and nor will we know for certain until the results of the spending reviews in the autumn, but in the meantime there are some clues. First, the police service is not on the protected list. Second, the new Home Secretary Theresa May has warned that the police can expect to face its fair share of cuts and third, there has specifically been no guarantee to maintain personnel numbers but it would appear we are looking at job losses in the police forces of 11,500 – 17,000 if the police are to suffer the government’s average cuts. This will mean fewer personnel for patrol, response and investigation duties.”

Dr Brain added that if, as the Institute of Fiscal Studies projected before the election, public spending to the proportion of GDP was reduced to the proportion it occupied in 2003/04, then it could be expected that police funding levels would be similarly reduced. In this scenario the equivalent of around 30,000 full-time time equivalent (FTE) posts would be lost by 2015. The IFS post-budget analysis projected a restoration of public spending to levels last seen in 1997/98. In this scenario then around the equivalent of 60,000 FTE posts would be lost.

The Home Secretary has already said she expects the ‘front line’ to be protected. However, Dr Brain said in his article it was difficult to see how this can be achieved with even the minimum numbers of loss projected.

These projections have assumed that spending on equipment, goods, services and supplies, etc, will decrease in proportion to the total budget, but it can be anticipated that the government will expect greater savings, or efficiencies, to be made in these areas in order to mitigate the effect on police numbers.

Dr Brain concluded for Jane’s Police Review: “Of course, the figures here are projections based on estimates and assumptions in what is a highly unpredictable environment. The government is in control of the rules and small percentage changes here or there when magnified by billions make a lot of difference. Furthermore, the government plans for most of the cuts to fall in 2014/15, so there’s plenty of time to change the detail. However, these projections at least provide a starting point for calculating reductions and can be refined as more information becomes available. The big question is, are the leaders of the service, its representatives and the public ready to accept reductions on such a scale?”

Meanwhile: cutting community safety programmes and police numbers during the recession could have a disproportionate impact on the long-term economic and social well-being of communities across Wales, a Cardiff University policing academic has warned.

Director of the Universities’ Police Science Institute (UPSI), Professor Martin Innes told a briefing of AMs this week that the combined effect of the recession and possible police cuts could challenge the economic resilience of neighbourhoods and corrode levels of community cohesion.

“A great deal of good, positive and productive work by community groups, community safety partnerships and Police forces across Wales, means there has been considerable progress in cutting acts of anti-social behaviour,” Professor Innes said. “However, research by the Universities Police Science Institute (UPSI) confirms that anti-social behaviour involving young people remains the biggest fear for people living in communities across South Wales.

“If anything, work to tackle anti-social behaviour has been given extra urgency by the recession. Our research shows that a failure to tackle anti-social behaviour can have potentially long-term serious impacts upon the long-term economic and social well-being of communities. Such behaviour can cause fear that leads to people retreating from public spaces or to look to move away completely from an area.

“These kinds of consequences damage the economic resilience of neighbourhoods and corrode levels of community cohesion. Such impacts are likely to become more common in the current climate where the stress on communities is already mounting.”

Prof Innes has been commissioned by Her Majesty’s Chief Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) to work alongside Ipsos MORI to develop a new framework to help police forces respond more effectively to acts of Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB).

The review will seek to integrate the best research on victims and ideas and how the police can develop a framework to operationalise the knowledge they collect on ASB.

Professor Innes added: "It is clear there will be considerable central government pressure to cut public spending on community safety and policing services.

“Whilst some of this is inevitable perhaps even desirable - care must be taken not to cut too deeply in a way that inhibits the capacity to deal effectively with ASB problems in our communities.

“The work we have been conducting shows how by collecting community intelligence from the public about their key ASB issues and priorities in neighbourhoods, and targeting resources to these problems at a local level, police and community safety partnerships can perform highly impactive interventions in a cost effective manner that respond directly to public needs.

“In so doing, they can significantly reduce the short and long-term harm that ASB does to community confidence” he added.

Professor Innes’ briefing was part of a monthly series of briefings open to all AMs and their staff. The briefings are hosted by the Assembly Member for Cardiff Central, Jenny Randerson.